Is this really a bottom?

As my clients and readers of my newsletter are aware, I've been suspicious of the supposed bottom that was set last fall.  The past few days action has my suspicion growing exponentially.  I've noted previously the precarious support threshhold on the S&P 500 between 800 and 825.  As I write this we're at 815, having bounced off the days low (it's 10:12 EST) of 811.35.  In light of Treasury Secretary Geithner's annoucement Tuesday and the reported agreement in the Senate on the stimulus plan, it is quite disturbing to see the market react this way.  The six month chart of the S&P 500 shows a pennant or flag formation, what I generally refer to as price consolidation. Interpretations vary, especially if one has particularly bullish versus bearish orientation.  Either way, the conclusion of the formation is usually a breakout, either up or down.  Given fundamental conditions right now, if I were a betting man, I'd say down.  My advice, keep yourself protected and aware.